Community Mitigation Strategies, Mobility, and COVID-19 Incidence Across Three Waves in the United States in 2020.

Background: Summarizing the impact of community-based mitigation strategies and mobility on COVID-19 infections throughout the pandemic is critical for informing responses and future infectious disease outbreaks. Here, we employed time-series analyses to empirically investigate the relationships between mitigation strategies and mobility on COVID-19 incident cases across US states during the first three waves of infections.

Methods: We linked data on daily COVID-19 incidence by US state from March to December 2020 with the stringency index, a well-known index capturing the strictness of mitigation strategies, and the trip ratio, which measures the ratio of the number of trips taken per day compared with the same day in 2019. We utilized multilevel models to determine the relative impacts of policy stringency and the trip ratio on COVID-19 cumulative incidence and the effective reproduction number. We stratified analyses by three waves of infections.

Results: Every five-point increase in the stringency index was associated with 2.89% (95% confidence interval = 1.52, 4.26%) and 5.01% (3.02, 6.95%) reductions in COVID-19 incidence for the first and third waves, respectively. Reducing the number of trips taken by 50% compared with the same time in 2019 was associated with a 16.2% (-0.07, 35.2%) decline in COVID-19 incidence at the state level during the second wave and 19.3% (2.30, 39.0%) during the third wave.

Conclusions: Mitigation strategies and reductions in mobility are associated with marked health gains through the reduction of COVID-19 infections, but we estimate variable impacts depending on policy stringency and levels of adherence.