Socio-economic deprivation and cancer incidence in England: Quantifying the role of smoking.

Background: More deprived populations typically experience higher cancer incidence rates and smoking prevalence compared to less deprived populations. We calculated the proportion of cancer cases attributable to smoking by socio-economic deprivation in England and estimated the impact smoking has on the deprivation gap for cancer incidence.

Methods: Data for cancer incidence (2013-2017), smoking prevalence (2003-2007) and population estimates (2013-2017) were split by sex, age-group and deprivation quintile. Relative risk estimates from meta-analyses were used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for 15 cancer types associated with smoking. The deprivation gap was calculated using age-specific incidence rates by deprivation quintile.

Results: Smoking-related cancer PAFs in England are 2.2 times larger in the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived quintile (from 9.7% to 21.1%). If everyone had the same smoking prevalence as the least deprived quintile, 20% of the deprivation gap in cancer incidence could have been prevented. If nobody smoked, 61% of the deprivation gap could have been prevented.

Conclusions: The majority of the deprivation gap in cancer incidence could have been prevented in England between 2013-2017 if nobody had smoked. Policy makers should ensure that tobacco control policies reduce overall smoking prevalence by tackling smoking inequalities.