Clinical and Dosimetric Predictors for Postoperative Cardiopulmonary Complications in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery.

Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored correlations of clinical factors and dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and predicted their risk by establishing a nomogram model.

Methods: Clinical and DVH parameters of ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment from 2002 to 2020 were collected. Postoperative cardiopulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was applied, and a nomogram model was constructed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

Results: Of the 307 ESCC patients enrolled in this study, 65 (21.2%) experienced pulmonary complications and 57 (18.6%) experienced cardiac complications. The following six risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for pulmonary complications by multivariate logistic regression analyses in the integrated model: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-9.70; P = 0.021), post-radiation therapy (RT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28-0.90; P = 0.023), mean lung dose (MLD) (OR, 1.13; 95% CI 1.01-1.28; P = 0.041), and pre-RT monocyte (OR, 8.36; 95% CI 1.23-11.7; P = 0.03). The AUC of this integrated model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.64-0.77). The paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) concurrent chemotherapy regimen was the independent predictor of cardiac complication (OR, 2.50; 95% CI 1.22-5.55; P = 0.016).

Conclusions: For ESCC patients who underwent trimodality treatment, male sex, post-RT FEV1, MLD, and pre-RT monocyte were confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative pulmonary complications. A nomogram model including six risk factors was further established. The independent predictor of cardiac complication was TP concurrent chemotherapy.