Risk factors for complications in acute calculous cholecystitis. Deconstruction of the Tokyo Guidelines.

Objective: To challenge the risk factors described in Tokyo Guidelines in Acute Calculous Cholecystitis.

Methods: Retrospective single center cohort study with 963 patients with Acute Cholecystitis during a period of 5 years. Some 725 patients with a "pure" Acute Calculous Cholecystitis were selected. The analysis included 166 variables encompassing all risk factors described in Tokyo Guidelines. The Propensity Score Matching method selected two subgroups of patients with equal comorbidities, to compare the severe complications rate according to the initial treatment (Surgical vs Non-Surgical). We analyzed the Failure-to-rescue as a quality indicator in the treatment of Acute Calculous Cholecystitis.

Results: the median age was 69 years (IQR 53-80). 85.1% of the patients were ASA II or III. The grade of the Acute Calculous Cholecystitis was mild in a 21%, moderate in 39% and severe in 40% of the patients. Cholecystectomy was performed in 95% of the patients. The overall complications rate was 43% and the mortality was 3.6%. The Logistic Regression model isolated 3 risk factor for severe complication: ASA > II, cancer without metastases and moderate to severe renal disease. The Failure-to-Rescue (8%) was higher in patients with non-surgical treatment (32% vs. 7%; P = 0.002). After Propensity Score Matching, the number of severe complications was similar between Surgical and Non-Surgical treatment groups (48.5% vs 62.5%; P = 0.21).

Conclusions: the recommended treatment for Acute Calculous Cholecystitis is the Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy. Only three risk factors from the Tokyo Guidelines list appeared as independent predictors of severe complications. The failure-to-rescue is higher in non-surgically treated patients.