The dynamic change of energy supply and demand structure within China: a perspective from the national value chain.

The complexity of the national value chain (NVC) has significantly impacted the level of energy consumption embodied in domestic trade. This paper aims to measure embodied energy and its spatial transfer between provinces and determine the dynamic change in the energy consumption supply and demand structure within China. This paper applies the multiregional input-output model (MRIO) to establish three accounting frameworks from forward-linkage, backward-linkage, and trade in value-added (TiVA) perspectives to comprehensively track energy consumption transfer along the NVC during the period 2007 to 2017. The results reveal that provinces acting as net energy importers are primarily in developed and coastal regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong). The net energy exporters are concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and other energy-intensive provinces. By and large, China's interprovincial energy transfer pattern gradually evolved from one of "shifting from inland provinces in the northwest and central regions to developed provinces in the east" to one of "shifting from the northwest, northeast, and central provinces to southwest and southeast provinces with the Yangtze River Delta and central provinces as pivots" during the period 2007-2017. By comparing the embodied energy transfer measured in three accounting frameworks, we find that this embodied energy transfer tends to be exaggerated from the forward-linkage and backward-linkage perspectives due to multiple cross-border trading of intermediates and double-counting. These findings indicate that complex domestic businesses, especially intermediates, exert a significant impact on energy transfer, resulting in more complicated energy flows. This article has significance for better understanding the energy transfer pattern and evolution process.