A novel nomogram for predicting long-term heart-disease specific survival among older female primary breast cancer patients that underwent chemotherapy: A real-world data retrospective cohort study.

Background: The past decade has witnessed an improvement in survival rates for breast cancer, with significant inroads achieved in diagnosis and treatment approaches. Even though chemotherapy is effective for this patient population, cardiotoxicity remains a major challenge, especially in older people. It has been established that cardiovascular events are a major cause of death in older female primary breast cancer patients that underwent chemotherapy. In the present study, the independent prognostic factors were identified to develop a novel nomogram for predicting long-term heart disease-specific survival (HDSS) and improving patient management.

Method: Older female primary breast cancer patients that underwent chemotherapy from 2010 to 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. HDSS was the primary endpoint of this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted on the training cohort to identify independent prognostic factors of HDSS and construct a nomogram to predict the 5- and 8-year HDSS. The performance of the constructed nomogram was evaluated by calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analyses. Finally, a risk classification system was constructed to assist in patient management.

Result: A total of 16,340 patients were included in this study. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified six independent prognostic factors: age, race, tumor stage, marital status, surgery, and radiotherapy. A nomogram based on these six factors yielded excellent performance, with areas under the curve of the ROC for 5- and 8-year HDSS of 0.759 and 0.727 in the training cohort and 0.718 and 0.747 in the validation cohort. Moreover, the established risk classification system could effectively identify patients at low-, middle-, and high- risk of heart disease-associated death and achieve targeted management.

Conclusion: Independent prognostic factors of HDSS in older female primary breast cancer patients that underwent chemotherapy were determined in this study. A novel nomogram for predicting 5- and 8-year HDSS in this patient population was also established and validated to help physicians during clinical decision-making and screen high-risk patients to improve outcomes.