A novel model based on liver/spleen volumes and portal vein diameter on MRI to predict variceal bleeding in HBV cirrhosis.

Objective: To develop a novel logistic regression model based on liver/spleen volumes and portal vein diameter measured on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting oesophagogastric variceal bleeding (OVB) secondary to HBV cirrhosis.

Methods: One hundred eighty-five consecutive cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B undergoing abdominal contrast-enhanced MRI were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 130) and validation cohort (n = 55). Spleen volume, total liver volume, four liver lobe volumes, and diameters of portal venous system were measured on MRI. Ratios of spleen volume to total liver and to individual liver lobe volumes were calculated. In training cohort, univariate analyses and binary logistic regression analyses were to determine independent predictors. Performance of the model for predicting OVB constructed based on independent predictors from training cohort was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and was validated by Kappa test in validation cohort.

Results: OVB occurred in 42 and 18 individuals in training and validation cohorts during the 2 years' follow-up, respectively. An OVB prediction model was constructed based on the independent predictors including right liver lobe volume (RV), left gastric vein diameter (LGVD) and portal vein diameter (PVD) (odds ratio = 0.993, 2.202 and 1.613, respectively; p-values < 0.001 for all). The logistic regression model equation (-0.007 × RV + 0.79 × LGVD + 0.478 × PVD-6.73) for predicting OVB obtained excellent performance with an area under ROC curve of 0.907. The excellent performance was confirmed by Kappa test with K-value of 0.802 in validation cohort.

Conclusion: The novel logistic regression model can be reliable for predicting OVB.

Key Points: • Patients with oesophagogastric variceal bleeding are mainly characterized by decreased right lobe volume, and increased spleen volume and diameters of portal vein system. • The right liver lobe volume, left gastric vein diameter and portal vein diameter are the independent predictors of oesophagogastric variceal bleeding. • The novel model developed based on the independent predictors performed well in predicting oesophagogastric variceal bleeding with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.907.