The role of demographic change in explaining the growth of Australia's older migrant population living with dementia, 2016-2051.

Objective: To examine the demographic drivers contributing to the future growth in the population of older migrants in Australia living with dementia.

Methods: Using birthplace-specific cohort-component projection models, we projected the number of older migrants living with dementia. ABS data on births, deaths, migration and birthplace were used, alongside Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) estimates of dementia prevalence with birthplace dementia weights calculated from administrative data.

Results: The number of older migrants living with dementia is projected to increase from about 134,423 in 2016 to 378,724 by 2051. Increases in populations with dementia varied considerably, from a slight decrease for those born in Southern & Eastern Europe to over 600% increases amongst the South-East Asia, Southern & Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa-born populations.

Conclusions: Cohort flow is the primary driver increasing the number of older migrants living with dementia. This growth is largely inevitable because the cohorts are already living in Australia as part of the migrant population, but currently at ages below 60 years.

Implications For Public Health: High relative growth and shifting birthplace composition in the number of migrants living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health care access and workforce needs to support migrant families, carers and their communities.