Preoperative prognostic value of alfa-fetoprotein density in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation.

Objectives: To examine the prognostic value of preoperative alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) density and other clinical factors in patients undergoing percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: From January 2010 to December 2018, a total of 543 patients undergoing RFA for HCC meeting the Milan criteria were included at our institution. AFP density was calculated as absolute AFP pre-ablation divided by the total volume of all HCC lesions. The survival rates according to AFP density were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were used to assess predictors of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

Results: The Kaplan-Meier 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 98.8%, 88.5%, and 70.4%, respectively, for the low AFP density group, and 98.3%, 74.9%, and 49.4%, respectively, for the high AFP density group. The corresponding PFS rates were 78.9%, 56.7%, and 40.9% (low AFP density group), and 63.6%, 40.8%, and 27.5% (high AFP density group). High AFP density was associated with significantly reduced PFS and OS (both  < 0.001). Multivariate analysis suggested that AFP density was a predictor of OS and PFS.

Conclusions: Serum AFP density may serve as a promising predictor of survival in patients with HCC undergoing RFA. High AFP density could identify patients who might be prone to recurrence or progression and need close surveillance.