Expectation propagation is a general prescription for approximation of integrals in statistical inference problems. Its literature is mainly concerned with Bayesian inference scenarios. However, expectation propagation can also be used to approximate integrals arising in statistical inference. We focus on likelihood-based inference for binary response mixed models and show that fast and accurate quadrature-free inference can be realized for the probit link case with multivariate random effects and higher levels of nesting. The approach is supported by asymptotic calculations in which expectation propagation is seen to provide consistent estimation of the exact likelihood surface. Numerical studies reveal the availability of fast, highly accurate and scalable methodology for binary mixed model analysis. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2019.1665529 | DOI Listing |
This study aims to mine and analyze adverse events (AEs) of Vedolizumab based on the FAERS database to better understand its safety and potential risks in the real world. Data from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2023 were collected, employing various signal mining methods such as Reporting Odds Ratio (ROR), Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR), Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN), and Empirical Bayesian Geometric Mean (EBGM). The study gathered 14,753,012 reports of AEs, of which 46,726 were related to Vedolizumab.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBehav Brain Sci
January 2025
Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ,
Do people believe in historical myths because they are manipulated by coalitional recruiters, or because it is in their interests to do so? The target article gives somewhat conflicting explanations. We propose that the audiences of historical myths are socially rather than epistemically motivated - they believe and propagate historical myths as a way of signaling their coalitional commitments.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFNature
January 2025
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Br J Soc Psychol
January 2025
Sentience Institute, New York City, New York, USA.
The ways people imagine possible futures with artificial intelligence (AI) affects future world-making-how the future is produced through cultural propagation, design, engineering, policy, and social interaction-yet there has been little empirical study of everyday people's expectations for AI futures. We addressed this by analysing two waves (2021 and 2023) of USA nationally representative data from the Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey on the public's forecasts about an imagined future world with widespread AI sentience (total N = 2401). Average responses to six forecasts (exploiting AI labour, treating AI cruelly, using AI research subjects, AI welfare, AI rights advocacy, AI unhappiness reduction) showed mixed expectations for humanity's future with AI.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
December 2024
Mathematics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, Leuven, Belgium.
The formation of a S-shaped filament was investigated to determine if and how magnetoacoustic waves in the solar corona can trigger filament excitation. The study investigated how magnetoacoustic waves interact with two magnetic null points in the solar corona. Since the solar corona has a complex magnetic field structure, it is expected that magnetic structures are predominantly responsible for the occurrence of coronal events.
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