[Prognostic analysis and predictive model construction of bleeding events in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients].

To study hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-related bleeding prognosis and construct a bleeding prediction model. The clinical data of 555 patients with malignant hematologic diseases who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation between May 1(st) 2004, and April 1(st) 2012 was analyzed retrospectively, and a prediction model was constructed. Of the 555 patients, a total of 302 (54.0% ) patients exhibited bleeding events of varying degrees, including 151 (27.0% ) with grade Ⅰ bleeding, 63 (11.0% ) with grade Ⅱ bleeding, 48 (9.0% ) with grade Ⅲ bleeding, and 40 (7.0% ) with grade Ⅳ bleeding. Multifactorial analysis showed that the overall mortality (=12.53, 95% 7.91-19.87, <0.001) and non-recurrence mortality (=23.79, 95% 12.23-46.26, <0.001) were higher in patients with higher bleeding grades (Ⅲ and Ⅳ bleeding) compared to those with lower bleeding grades. Additionally, the donor's underlying disease, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) score, poor platelet reconstitution, and ineffective platelet transfusion were independently associated with bleeding risk. The bleeding model constructed using the above variables showed good accuracy (C-Index=0.934) , and its efficacy was significantly higher than previous bleeding models. Hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients are at increased risk of death after a bleeding event. The cross-validated bleeding risk prediction model is valuable for early intervention.