Analysis of the correlation between mortality in nursing homes and among elderly population in Italy during the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: The objective of the analysis is to investigate whether there is a correlation between deaths occurred within nursing homes in Lombardy Region and those related to the whole elderly population residing in the municipalities of their location at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: The analysis considered a sample of 17 nursing homes belonging to the same legal entity (with a total of 2,197 beds). The changes occurred in the trend of deaths in 2020 between January the 1 and February the 20, and between February the 21 and April the 4, compared with the average number of deaths occurred in the same time intervals of the previous three-year period (2017-2019) were investigated. To verify the presence of a correlation between deaths occurring within nursing homes and those related to the whole elderly population residing in the municipalities of their respective locations, Pearson correlation index was calculated, distinguishing between elderly over 65 years of age and elderly over 85 years of age.

Results: A statistically significant correlation was identified between the number of deaths among the overall population and the number of deaths among nursing homes residents between February the 21 and April the 20, while no correlations were identified between January the 1 and February the 20.

Conclusions: The number of deaths occurred in the nursing homes of the sample considered shows similar trends to those of the elderly population of the municipalities in which they are located.