Analysis of Rates of Brain Metastases and Association With Breast Cancer Subtypes in Ontario, Canada.

Importance: Approximately 1 in 7 patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) will receive radiotherapy for brain metastases (BRM). Significant differences in cumulative incidence of BRM by breast cancer subtype may inform future BRM screening protocols.

Objective: To describe cumulative incidence of BRM among patients with de novo MBC.

Design, Setting, And Participants: In this population-based cohort study, population health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, held at the ICES were used to identify patients diagnosed with de novo MBC between 2009 and 2018. Given that a code for BRM does not exist within ICES, we analyzed the incidence of radiotherapy for BRM. The median (IQR) follow-up was 19.3 (6.2-39.5) months. A total of 100 747 patients with a new diagnosis of breast cancer between January 2009 and December 2018 were identified. Of these patients, 17 955 were excluded because they had previous or subsequent malignant neoplasms, 583 were excluded because they were younger than 18 years, 974 were excluded because there was an invalid Ontario Health Insurance Plan number or a date of death on or before the index date. Among 81 235 remaining patients, 3916 were identified as having de novo MBC.

Exposures: Treatment with radiotherapy for breast cancer BRM.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Cumulative incidence of radiotherapy for BRM accounting for the competing risk of death, and time from MBC diagnosis to brain radiotherapy. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed for time-to-event end points. Logistic regression was used to account for confounding variables.

Results: Among 3916 patients with MBC, 1215 (31.0%) had HR-positive/ERBB2 (formerly HER2)-negative cancer, 310 (7.9%) had ERBB2-positive/HR-positive cancer, 200 (5.1%) had ERBB2-positive/HR-negative cancer, 258 (6.6%) had TNBC, and the remaining 1933 patients (49.4%) had an unknown breast cancer subtype. The median (IQR) age at diagnosis was 63 (52-75). A total of 549 (14.0%) underwent stereotactic radiosurgery or whole brain radiotherapy for breast cancer BRM. Cumulative incidence of BRM was higher among patients with ERBB2-positive/HR-negative breast cancer (34.7%), ERBB2-positive/HR-positive breast cancer (28.1%), and triple-negative breast cancer (21.9%) compared to those with HR-positive/ERBB2-negative breast cancer (12.1%). The median (IQR) time from MBC diagnosis to brain radiotherapy ranged from 7.5 (2.3-17.4) months for patients with TNBC to 19.8 (12.2-35.1) months for those with ERBB2-positive/HR-positive breast cancer.

Conclusions And Relevance: Incidence and time to development of BRM vary significantly by breast cancer subtype. A better understanding of the biology of intracranial metastatic disease may help inform potential screening programs or preventative interventions.