Integrating optimization and damage estimation to increase economic benefit and ensure food security under seasonal land variability.

Rapidly increasing population and rising food demand necessitates expansion of agricultural mainland. However, with accelerated urbanization, agricultural land resources are difficult to expand. The riverine sandbars offer a vast fertile terrain that is conducive to agricultural food production and could support the global food demands despite urbanization. Nevertheless, hydroclimatic factors like streamflow and precipitation have an impact on the availability of agricultural land and potential crop damage in riverine ecosystems. The present study determines the agricultural economic benefits from cultivation in riverine sandbars through optimization framework under stochastic streamflow. A damage estimation model was developed to evaluate the economic losses an optimally planned riverine agricultural area would suffer, if the flow variation exceeds a certain threshold. The findings showed that economic benefit of ∼130 million rupees could be achieved with ∼22 million rupees of additional benefit from the proposed optimization approach. This additional benefit was in reference to the selective cropping approaches, which the farmers did not account. Furthermore, the damage estimation model could comprehend the losses under fluctuating streamflow in subsequent years that was found to vary between 5 and 34 percent. Therefore, this framework of integrating optimization and damage estimation approaches contribute to a better understanding of optimally utilizing the riverine sandbars, thereby improving the socio-economic status of marginalized communities and providing potential additional land resources to sustain food security and production. The study also highlighted the need of crop insurance facilities to assess and manage risks that could provide financial support to farmers, cover crop loss and damage arising from hydroclimatic variabilities.