Groundwater resources are important water sources for people living in arid-semiarid China. To solve the problem of continuously declining groundwater levels, groundwater artificial recharge has been widely conducted by using available aquifers. However, the effects of land use changes on the available aquifer storage, especially on the remaining available aquifer storage (RAAS), have not been fully explored. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of land use changes on the RAAS, exemplifying the Taoerhe alluvial-proluvial fan. Independent component analysis (ICA) is used to determine precipitation- and groundwater extraction-affected RAASs, and regression equations are established for land use type areas and precipitation- and groundwater extraction-affected RAASs through stepwise regression and all-subsets regression. An integrated model combining the future land use simulation (FLUS) model and Markov-chain model is established to predict three land use change scenarios in 2036, and the impacts of land use changes on the precipitation- and groundwater extraction-affected RAASs are evaluated. The results show that land use changes were generally active from 2000 to 2018; during this time, the RAAS showed a fluctuating upward trend. Rational land use changes are critical to the RAAS. In the 2036 baseline scenario, the precipitation-affected RAAS is the smallest and the groundwater extraction-affected RAAS is the largest among the three scenarios, contrary to the economic development scenario results. The woodland conservation scenario shows that the groundwater level can be maintained at a stable level with appropriate woodland protection measures to ensure the stability of the RAAS, providing the most promising results for groundwater development and utilization in the study area. These results temporally quantify the effects of land use changes on the precipitation- and groundwater extraction-affected RAASs and provide a reference for developing artificial recharge schemes in arid-semiarid regions and studying the effects of land use changes on available aquifer storages.
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