Beliefs about harms of cigarette smoking among Norwegian adults born from 1899 to 1969. Do variations across education, smoking status and sex mirror the decline in smoking?

Background And Aim: Smoking is one of the most important causes of socioeconomic disparities in morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine if beliefs about harms of smoking differed across gender, smoking status and education among Norwegian adults born between 1899 and 1969.

Methods: Using data from a nationally representative survey of smoking habits and a multinomial logit/negative binomial two-stage hurdle model design, we examined (first hurdle) the associations between birth cohort, gender, education and smoking status and four beliefs about cigarette smoking: i) smoking is not harmful, ii) do not know if smoking is harmful, iii) any number of cigarettes per day (CPD) is harmful and iv) smoking more than a given nonzero number of CPD is harmful, and (second hurdle) the predicted number of CPD that could be smoked without causing harm (from outcome iv).

Results: The probability of believing that smoking was not harmful was close to zero, regardless of birth cohort, sex, education and smoking status. The probability of not knowing if smoking was harmful decreased from around 0.7 to almost zero across cohorts. The probability of believing that smoking more than zero CPD was harmful increased from less than 0.1 to around 0.7, while the probability of believing that there is some safe level of smoking increased with cohorts born from 1900 to 1930 before declining. Respondents with primary/secondary education consistently believed smoking to be less harmful compared to respondents with tertiary education, but cohort trajectories were similar.

Discussion: The similar birth cohort trajectories in beliefs about the harms of smoking do not support the idea that Norwegian adults with lower education has had qualitatively different beliefs about the harmfulness of smoking compared to those with higher education. The persistent and large socioeconomic gradient is likely a result of other factors.