Predictors, Patterns, and Timing of Recurrence Provide Insight into the Disease Biology of Invasive Carcinomas Arising in Association with Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

Objectives: To identify predictors, patterns, and timing of recurrence after resection of invasive carcinomas arising in association with an IPMN.

Background: Postoperative management of an invasive carcinoma arising in association with an intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), a biologically distinct entity from PanIN-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), remains largely based on guidelines for PanIN-derived PDAC. To minimize treatment failure and inform disease-specific management, cancer recurrence must be better characterized.

Methods: Patients were identified from a prospectively maintained registry between 1996 and 2018. Predictors of recurrence were evaluated by employing Cox regression models to determine risk-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). The patterns and timing of recurrence were recognized and compared utilizing a log-rank test, respectively.

Results: Of the 213 patients included, 92 (43.2%) recurred with a median RFS of 23.7 months (16.7-30.7). The predominant pattern of recurrence included any systemic (65.2%). The median time to local recurrence was longer than systemic (21.6 versus 11.4 months, p = 0.05). Poor differentiation [HR: 3.01, 95%CI (1.06-8.61)] and nodal disease [N1, HR: 2.23, 95%CI (1.12-4.60); and N2, HR: 5.67 95%CI (2.93-10.99)] emerged as independent predictors of systemic recurrence. For local-specific recurrences, poor differentiation [HR: 3.73, 95%CI (1.04-13.45)] and an R1 margin [high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma; HR: 2.66, 95%CI (1.14-6.21)] emerged as independent predictors.

Conclusions: The predominant pattern of recurrence after resection of invasive carcinomas arising in association with IPMNs is systemic, and occurs earlier than local recurrence. Poor differentiation and nodal disease are associated with systemic recurrence while poor differentiation and an R1 margin are associated with local recurrence. Future studies should investigate the role of systemic (chemotherapy) versus local (radiation) therapies and surveillance strategies in a personalized manner.