Predictive factors of inhospital mortality for ICU patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure undergoing liver transplantation.

Introduction: Liver transplantation (LT) is the only effective treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but it is limited by organ availability. This study aims to identify predictive factors of mortality for LT candidates based on parameters measured at the admission into the ICU.

Methods: Sixty-four patients diagnosed with ACLF, admitted consecutively into ICU between 2015 and 2019, were retrospectively enrolled in the study. Data were assessed using univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify risk factors for inhospital mortality and 1-year mortality.

Results: A total of 67% of patients were diagnosed with ACLF grade 3, and 25 and 8% with grades 2 and 1. Thirty percent received LT with a 1-year mortality rate of 16%, whereas for nontransplanted patients it reached 90%. Clinical features were compared according to transplant eligibility. In the univariate analysis model, lung failure (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.48-6.09; P = 0.002), high lactate levels (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < 0.001) and CLIF-ACLF score (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = 0.026) were independently correlated to increased inhospital mortality. LT reduced mortality risk (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.72; P = 0.016).

Conclusion: Lung failure, CLIF-ACLF score and blood lactate levels at admission were the only statistically significant independent predictors of inhospital mortality, more accurate in determining transplant success than ACLF grade.