Drainage volume on postoperative day one to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula following distal pancreatectomy.

Background: The purpose of this study was to determine how the drain fluid volume on the first day after surgery (DFV 1) can be used to predict clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula following distal pancreatectomy (DP).

Method: A retrospective analysis of 175 patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy in hepatobiliary surgery at Chengdu 363 Hospital (China) from January 2015 to January 2021 has been performed. Depending on the presence of pancreatic fistula, all patients were divided into two groups: POPF and non-POPF. The clinical factors were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 and Medcalc software. In order to assess the effectiveness of DFV 1 in predicting POPF after surgery, ROC curves were used to calculate its cut-off point,, which yielded sensitivity and negative predictive value of 100% for excluding POPF.

Result: Of the 175 patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy, the incidence of overall pancreatic fistula was 36%, but the rate of clinically significant (grade B and C) fistula, as defined by the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula, 30 was only 17.1% (28 grade B and 2 grade C fistula). The results from univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that drain fluid volume on the first postoperative day (OR = 0.95, P = 0.03), drainage fluid amylase level on POD1 (OR = 0.99, P = 0.01) and the preoperative ALT level (OR = 0.73, P = 0.02) were independent risk factors associated with CR-POPF. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that a drainage volume of 156 mL within 24 h and an amylase greater than 3219.2 U/L on the first postoperative day were the optimal thresholds associated with complications.

Conclusion: After distal pancreatectomy, the drainage volume on the first postoperative day can predict the presence of a clinically relevant pancreatic fistula.