Epidemiology of nodding syndrome in the Greater Mundri area, South Sudan: Prevalence, spatial pattern and environmental risk factors.

Background: Nodding syndrome (NS) is a progressive neurological disease that has been described in several sub-Saharan African counties, but South Sudan is considered the most affected. However, knowledge about the exact burden and the epidemiological risk factors of NS in South Sudan is lacking.

Objective: To determine the prevalence, distribution and epidemiological risk factors of NS in the Greater Mundri area, the epicenter of NS in South Sudan.

Methods: A NS prevalence house-to-house survey was conducted in multiple villages between February 2018 and November 2019. Geographical distribution and clustering of NS cases was identified using spatial and binomial regression analysis. Epidemiological risk factors of NS were identified using univariate and multivariate models.

Results: Of the 22,411 persons surveyed in 92 villages, 607 (2.7%) persons with NS were identified, of which 114 (19%) were new-onset cases. The highest prevalence was found in Diko village with a prevalence of 13.7%. NS showed a significant spatial pattern with clustering of cases between adjacent households and along rivers. Risks factors for NS include all behaviors around rivers (drinking, cooking, handwashing and bathing) and exposure to poultry. On the other hand, ownership of mobile phone decreased the risk of NS. Many other factors, including prior ivermectin treatment and internal displacement were not associated with NS.

Conclusion: Our study demonstrates a very high burden of the NS disease in the Greater Mundri area, strengthens the association with rivers, and identified possible new clues for an underlying cause.