A prognostic survival model for women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia.

Purpose: Prognostic models can help inform patients on the future course of their cancer and assist the decision making of clinicians and patients in respect to management and treatment of the cancer. In contrast to previous studies considering survival following treatment, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to quantify breast cancer-specific survival at the time of diagnosis.

Methods: A large (n = 3323), population-based prospective cohort of women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 2010 and 2013, and followed up to December 2018. Data were collected through a validated semi-structured telephone interview and a self-administered questionnaire, along with data linkage to the Queensland Cancer Register and additional extraction from medical records. Flexible parametric survival models, with multiple imputation to deal with missing data, were used.

Results: Key factors identified as being predictive of poorer survival included more advanced stage at diagnosis, higher tumour grade, "triple negative" breast cancers, and being symptom-detected rather than screen detected. The Harrell's C-statistic for the final predictive model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.87), while the area under the ROC curve for 5-year mortality was 0.87. The final model explained about 36% of the variation in survival, with stage at diagnosis alone explaining 26% of the variation.

Conclusions: In addition to confirming the prognostic importance of stage, grade and clinical subtype, these results highlighted the independent survival benefit of breast cancers diagnosed through screening, although lead and length time bias should be considered. Understanding what additional factors contribute to the substantial unexplained variation in survival outcomes remains an important objective.