Prioritization of Vaccines for Inclusion into China's Expanded Program on Immunization: Evidence from Experts' Knowledge and Opinions.

Background: Vaccine developers in China have made an increasing number of infectious diseases preventable through vaccination. An appropriate decision-making procedure is necessary for making wise decisions on whether to introduce new vaccines into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). When there are several vaccines that could potentially be considered, a scientifically justifiable mechanism is needed for prioritizing and sequencing vaccines for consideration.

Methods: We used a modified Delphi technique (MDT) to develop and refine an indicator system to prioritize vaccines and make policy recommendations concerning their introduction into China's EPI system. From January through May 2021, thirty-nine experts were recruited and participated in a two-round Delphi survey that was based on a set of candidate indicators obtained through a literature review and reference to the WHO vaccine introduction recommendations. Using the resulting indicator system, we conducted a third consultation with a multi-disciplinary group of experts who scored five program-eligible candidate vaccines to determine prioritization and sequencing for consideration of inclusion into the EPI.

Results: Response rates of the thirty-nine experts were 100% and 97.4% across the two rounds. Authority coefficients from rounds one to three were over 0.70, reflecting the high accuracy and reliability of the consultation. Coordination coefficients of importance scores for primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators were 0.486, 0.356, 0.275 in round one, and 0.405, 0.340, and 0.236 in round two. According to the scores from 30 experts using our indicator system, the sequence and scores (1-10 scale, 10 highest) of 5 candidate vaccines were varicella (6.91), meningococcal conjugate AC (6.83), Hib (6.74), influenza (6.56), and EV71 (6.17) vaccines.

Conclusions: A modified Delphi technique effectively built a scientific, rational, comprehensive, and systematic indicator system for prioritizing vaccine candidates for consideration of inclusion into the EPI. The rank order will be used by the technical working groups of China's National Immunization Advisory Committee to sequentially develop and present Evidence-to-Recommendation tables for making policy recommendations.