A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: file_get_contents(https://...@gmail.com&api_key=61f08fa0b96a73de8c900d749fcb997acc09): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests

Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php

Line Number: 143

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 143
Function: file_get_contents

File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 209
Function: simplexml_load_file_from_url

File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 3098
Function: getPubMedXML

File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 574
Function: pubMedSearch_Global

File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 488
Function: pubMedGetRelatedKeyword

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Attempt to read property "Count" on bool

Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php

Line Number: 3100

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 3100
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 574
Function: pubMedSearch_Global

File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 488
Function: pubMedGetRelatedKeyword

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once

Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • * An ensemble modelling approach was used to analyze presence/absence data and 22 environmental variables to predict both current and future distribution ranges for these species under different socioeconomic pathways for the years 2050 and 2090.
  • * Results indicated that while suitable habitats for these species are currently substantial, projections show significant reductions in habitat suitability by 2090, with A. pindrow facing the highest loss of about 14% and A. spectabilis and A. densa also

Article Abstract

Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km, 790,837 km and 676,918 km for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10245-yDOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

hindu kush
16
kush himalayan
16
himalayan region
16
suitable habitat
12
climate change
12
future distribution
12
spectabilis densa
12
total suitable
12
pindrow spectabilis
12
species
10

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: fwrite(): Write of 34 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device

Filename: drivers/Session_files_driver.php

Line Number: 272

Backtrace:

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: session_write_close(): Failed to write session data using user defined save handler. (session.save_path: /var/lib/php/sessions)

Filename: Unknown

Line Number: 0

Backtrace: