A systematic literature review and expert consensus on risk factors associated to infection progression in adult patients with respiratory tract or rectal colonisation by carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria.

Objective: Risk factors (RFs) associated with infection progression in patients already colonised by carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CRGNB) have been addressed in few and disperse works. The aim of this study is to identify the relevant RFs associated to infection progression in patients with respiratory tract or rectal colonisation.

Methods: A systematic literature review was developed to identify RFs associated with infection progression in patients with CRGNB respiratory tract or rectal colonisation. Identified RFs were then evaluated and discussed by the expert panel to identify those that are relevant according to the evidence and expert's experience.

Results: A total of 8 articles were included for the CRGNB respiratory tract colonisation and 21 for CRGNB rectal colonisation, identifying 19 RFs associated with pneumonia development and 44 RFs associated with infection progression, respectively. After discussion, the experts agreed on 13 RFs to be associated with pneumonia development after respiratory tract CRGNB colonisation and 33 RFs to be associated with infection progression after rectal CRGNB colonisation. Respiratory tract and rectal colonisation, previous stay in the ICU and longer stay in the ICU were classified as relevant RF independently of the pathogen and site of colonisation. Previous exposure to antibiotic therapy or previous carbapenem use were also common relevant RF for patients with CRGNB respiratory tract and rectal colonisation.

Conclusions: The results of this study may contribute to the early identification of CRGNB colonized patients at higher risk of infection development, favouring time-to-effective therapy and improving health outcomes.