Multivariate Base Rates of Low Neuropsychological Test Scores in Cognitively Intact Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline from a Specialist Memory Clinic.

Objective: To avoid misdiagnosing mild cognitive impairment (MCI), knowledge of the multivariate base rates (MVBRs) of low scores on neuropsychological tests is crucial. Base rates have typically been determined from normative population samples, which may differ from clinically referred samples. The current study addresses this limitation by calculating the MVBR of low or high cognitive scores in older adults who presented to a memory clinic experiencing subjective cognitive decline but were not diagnosed with MCI.

Method: We determined the MVBRs on the Kaplan-Baycrest Neurocognitive Assessment for 107 cognitively healthy older adults (M age = 75.81), by calculating the frequency of patients producing n scores below or above different cut-off values (i.e., 1, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 SD from the mean), stratifying by education and gender.

Results: Performing below or above cut-off was common, with more stringent cut-offs leading to lower base rates (≥1 low scores occurred in 84.1% of older adults at -1 SD, 55.1% at -1.5 SD, and 39.3% at -2 SD below the mean; ≥1 high scores occurred in 80.4% of older adults at +1 SD, 35.5% at +1.5 SD, and 16.8% at +2 SD above the mean). Higher education was associated with varying base rates. Overall, the MVBR of obtaining a low cognitive test score was higher in this clinic sample, compared with prior studies of normative samples.

Conclusions: MVBRs for clinically referred older adults experiencing memory complaints provide a diagnostic benefit, helping to prevent attributing normal variability to cognitive impairment and limiting false positive diagnoses.