Serum neurofilament light levels are predictive of all-cause mortality in late middle-aged individuals.

Background: Blood biomarkers can offer valuable and easily accessible indicators of normal biological processes, pathogenic conditions, and responses to therapeutic interventions. Recent studies found that levels of neurofilament light chain (NfL) in the blood are associated with mortality in three European cohorts of older adults (median ages 73, 93, and 100 years). Whether similar associations exist in younger adults and in other ethnic groups is currently not known.

Methods: We utilized a cohort study that included 294 African Americans (baseline ages 49-65). Serum NfL levels were measured using a Meso Scale Discovery-based assay. Vital status was determined by matching through the National Death Index.

Findings: Seventy-two participants (24.5%) died during the 14-15 years of follow up (2000-2014). Baseline serum NfL levels were significantly higher in the decedent group (86.1±65.7 pg/ml vs. 50.1±28.0 pg/ml, p < 0·001). In binomial logistic regression models adjusted for age, gender, education, baseline smoking status, BMI, and total comorbidities (0-11), serum NfL levels remained a strong predictor of all-cause mortality, and sensitivity analyses employing multiple additional covariates did not substantively change the relationship. Further, Kaplan-Meier curves based on serum NfL quartiles showed reduced survival in groups with higher serum NfL levels.

Interpretation: This study found a positive association between serum NfL levels and mortality in late middle-aged and older individuals. While our findings support that serum NfL levels may be a useful biomarker for all-cause mortality, further studies are needed to understand the biological mechanisms underlying this association.

Funding: National Institute on Aging, Saint Louis University.