Intermediate human activities maximize dryland ecosystem services in the long-term land-use change: Evidence from the Sangong River watershed, northwest China.

Human activities cause widespread changes in landscape composition, which can affect ecosystem services produced by these landscapes. It is usually believed that ecosystem services can be maximized only when we eliminate all human activities. However, this belief is not the case, at least in dryland ecosystems. Here, a gradient of human activity intensity was used to investigate changes in the value of ecosystem services over 30-years of land-use change between 1990 and 2020 in the arid Sangong River watershed of northwest China. Spatial analyses were performed to determine how the value of dryland ecosystem services changed with human activity intensity. Stepwise regressions and linear programming models were also performed to examine how to optimize the value of ecosystem services (i.e., regulating services, provisioning services, supporting services, and cultural services). We found that landscapes of the Sangong River watershed became increasingly fragmented and that human activities gradually intensified, but the value of ecosystem services fluctuated rather than linearly decreasing over the past 30 years. Specifically, a unimodal relationship was observed between human activities and ecosystem services. The peak value of ecosystem services was 5799 USD ha yr under intermediate human activity intensity (i.e., human footprint index ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 at a scale of one). Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, and water consumption were the three most important driving factors of human activities and ecosystem services. Our results suggest that intermediate human activities may maximize dryland ecosystem services in long-term land-use change at the watershed scale, and highlight the importance of regulating economic development, population, and water consumption for the management of dryland ecosystem services.