Diagnostic prediction models for CT-confirmed and bacterial rhinosinusitis in primary care: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Antibiotics are overused in patients with acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) as it is difficult to identify those who benefit from antibiotic treatment.

Aim: To develop prediction models for computed tomography (CT)-confirmed ARS and culture-confirmed acute bacterial rhinosinusitis (ABRS) in adults presenting to primary care with symptoms suggestive of ARS.

Design And Setting: This was a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

Method: CT-confirmed ARS was defined as the presence of fluid level or total opacification in any maxillary sinuses, whereas culture-confirmed ABRS was defined by culture of fluid from antral puncture. Prediction models were derived using logistic regression modelling.

Results: Among 426 patients from three studies, 140 patients (32.9%) had CT-confirmed ARS. A model consisting of seven variables: previous diagnosis of ARS, preceding upper respiratory tract infection, anosmia, double sickening, purulent nasal discharge on examination, need for antibiotics as judged by a physician, and C-reactive protein (CRP) showed an optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69 to 0.78) and a calibration slope of 0.99 (95% CI = 0.72 to 1.19). Among 225 patients from two studies, 68 patients (30.2%) had culture-confirmed ABRS. A model consisting of three variables: pain in teeth, purulent nasal discharge, and CRP showed an optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.77) and a calibration slope of 1.00 (95% CI = 0.66 to 1.52). Clinical utility analysis showed that both models could be useful to rule out the target condition.

Conclusion: Simple prediction models for CT-confirmed ARS and culture-confirmed ABRS can be useful to safely reduce antibiotic use in adults with ARS in high-prescribing countries.