Identifying the characteristics and potential risk of seawater intrusion for southern China by the SBM-DEA model.

Seawater intrusion (SWI) seriously affects the economic development of coastal areas in southern China, and understanding its mechanisms is the basis for effective control of SWI. Hydrogeochemical methods and slack-based measurement data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) are used to study the characteristics and potential risk of SWI in coastal cities of southern China. Types and distribution of SWI, coastal groundwater evolution, geological-geographic and economic threatens of SWI, potential SWI risk, and environmental management recommendations are explored. The results show that the intrusion areas of Zhejiang and Guangdong account for 94.1 % of the total intrusion area of southern China, and the intrusion degree in Zhejiang is the highest, followed by Guangdong and Fujian. SWI is prone to occur on the sandy and silty coasts of the plain area of southern China; it accelerates the groundwater evolution speed and shortens the evolution path. SBM-DEA can be well applied to evaluate the potential risk of SWI events, and the results indicate a noticeable difference in the environmental performance level of coastal cities in southern China. The low environmental performance level (<0.3) and severe SWI of Taizhou and Zhanjiang indicate that SWI gradually worsens with economic development. In contrast, the high environmental performance level (>0.7) and low SWI of Wenzhou, Fuzhou, Quanzhou, Shantou, and Beihai indicate that the potential risk of SWI is gradually decreasing. Moreover, this study confirms that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) phenomenon exists in SWI events for southern China, and SWI-EKC indicates that the urban development of south China is approaching maturity. The specific case of SWI and EPL in coastal cities of south China jointly indicates that optimizing industrial structure, implementing a resources management policy, and improving citizens' environmental awareness are fundamental measures to resolve the contradiction between economic development and environmental problems.