Impacts of new cycle infrastructure on cycling levels in two French cities: an interrupted time series analysis.

Background: Cities globally have started to make substantial investment in more sustainable forms of transportation. We aimed to evaluate whether the construction of new cycling infrastructure in Paris and Lyon, France, affected population cycling activity along new or improved routes.

Methods: Routinely collected cycle count data from January 2014 to March 2020 were acquired for the cities of Paris and Lyon. Improvements were identified at 15 locations with 6 months of pre- and post-intervention data. Comparison streets were chosen within Paris or Lyon for which pre-intervention trends in cycling were similar to those at intervention sites. Controlled interrupted time series analyses and autocorrelation were performed adjusting for seasonality. Random-effects meta-analysis combined results across streets within each city and overall.

Results: On average, cycling counts/day increased on both intervention and control streets in Paris and Lyon. In general, results of the ITS analysis indicated no significant change in the level or trend as a result of the improvements in either city. Meta-analysis suggested that intervention streets in Paris had a larger positive pooled effect size for level change (218 cycle counts, 95% CI -189, 626, I = 0%) compared to Lyon (34, 95% CI -65, 133, I = 14%); however, confidence intervals for both cities were wide and included no effect.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that improving or constructing new cycle lanes may be necessary but not sufficient to induce significant changes in cycling levels. There is a need to understand how context, intervention design and other complementary interventions can improve the effectiveness of new cycling infrastructure.