Spatiotemporal impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan air quality in the absence of a lockdown: Influence of urban public transportation use and meteorological conditions.

The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 significantly improved the atmospheric environment for lockdown-imposed regions; however, scant evidence exists on its impacts on regions without lockdown. A novel research framework is proposed to evaluate the long-term monthly spatiotemporal impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan air quality through different statistical analyses, including geostatistical analysis, change detection analysis and identification of nonattainment pollutant occurrence between the average mean air pollutant concentrations from 2018-2019 and 2020, considering both meteorological and public transportation impacts. Contrary to lockdown-imposed regions, insignificant or worsened air quality conditions were observed at the beginning of COVID-19, but a delayed improvement occurred after April in Taiwan. The annual mean concentrations of PM, PM, SO, NO, CO and O in 2020 were reduced by 24%, 18%, 15%, 9.6%, 7.4% and 1.3%, respectively (relative to 2018-2019), and the overall occurrence frequency of nonattainment air pollutants declined by over 30%. Backward stepwise regression models for each air pollutant were successfully constructed utilizing 12 meteorological parameters (R > 0.8 except for SO) to simulate the meteorological normalized business-as-usual concentration. The hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model simulated the fate of air pollutants ( local emissions or transboundary pollution) for anomalous months. The changes in different public transportation usage volumes ( roadway, railway, air, and waterway) moderately reduced air pollution, particularly CO and NO. Reduced public transportation use had a more significant impact than meteorology on air quality improvement in Taiwan, highlighting the importance of proper public transportation management for air pollution control and paving a new path for sustainable air quality management even in the absence of a lockdown.