Mutational dynamics across VOCs in International travellers and Community transmission underscores importance of Spike-ACE2 interaction.

Background: Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs at different time points through COVID-19 pandemic raised concern for increased transmissibility, infectivity and vaccination breakthroughs.

Methods: 1567 international travellers plus community transmission COVID-19 cases were analysed for mutational profile of VOCS, that led to notable waves in India, namely Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. Spike mutations in Linkage Disequilibrium were investigated for potential impact on structural and functional changes of Spike-ACE2.

Results: ORF1ab and spike harboured diverse mutational signatures for each lineage. B.1.617.2 and AY. * demonstrated comparable profile, yet non-clade defining mutations were majorly unique between international vs community samples. Contrarily, Omicron lineages showed substantial overlap in non-clade defining mutations, signifying early phase of transmission and evolution within Indian community. Mutations in LD for Alpha [N501Y, A570D, D1118H, S982A], Delta [P681R, L452R, EFR:156-158 G, D950N, G142D] and Omicron [P681H, D796Y, N764K, N969K, N501Y, S375F] resulted in decreased binding affinity of Spike-ACE2 for Alpha and BA.1 whereas Delta, Omicron and BA.2 demonstrated strong binding.

Conclusion: Genomic surveillance tracked spread of VOCs in international travellers' vs community transmission. Behavioural transmission patterns of variants, based on selective advantage incurred by spike mutations, led us to predict sudden takeover of Delta over Alpha and BA.2 over BA.1 in India.