Preoperative Alpha-Fetoprotein and Radiological Total Tumor Diameter as Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation.

Background: Liver transplantation is a unique treatment opportunity for patients with chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Selection of HCC patients for transplantation was revolutionized by Milan-based criteria, but tumor recurrence and shortage of organs are still a major concern. Nowadays, additional preoperative tumor parameters can help to refine the graft allocation process. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value and cut-off points of pretransplant serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels and radiological tumor parameters on liver transplantation outcomes.

Methods: This is a single-team retrospective cohort of 162 consecutive deceased donor liver transplants (DDLT) with pathologically confirmed HCC. Pretransplant serum AFP levels and radiological tumor parameters were retrieved from a preoperative follow-up. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to evaluate cut-off points for each outcome. Multivariate Cox regression model was used to assess the predictors of HCC relapse and recipient mortality.

Results: Twelve recipients (7.4%) had HCC recurrence after transplantation, with median survival time of 5.8 months. Pretransplant AFP ≥30 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]: 13.84, P = .003) and radiological total tumor diameter (TTD) ≥5 cm (HR: 12.89, P = .005) were independent predictors for HCC relapse. Moreover, pretransplant AFP ≥150 ng/mL was independently associated with recipient mortality (HR: 4.45, P = .003).

Conclusions: Pretransplant AFP levels and radiological TTD were independently associated with HCC relapse and recipient mortality after DDLT, with different cut-off points predicting different outcomes. These findings may contribute to improving decision-making in the context of liver transplantation for HCC patients.