Machine learning predicting myopic regression after corneal refractive surgery using preoperative data and fundus photography.

Purpose: Myopic regression after surgery is the most common long-term complication of refractive surgery, but it is difficult to identify myopic regression without long-term observation. This study aimed to develop machine learning models to identify high-risk patients for refractive regression based on preoperative data and fundus photography.

Methods: This retrospective study assigned subjects to the training (n = 1606 eyes) and validation (n = 403 eyes) datasets with chronological data splitting. Machine learning models with ResNet50 (for image analysis) and XGBoost (for integration of all variables and fundus photography) were developed based on subjects who underwent corneal refractive surgery. The primary outcome was the predictive performance for the presence of myopic regression at 4 years of follow-up examination postoperatively.

Results: By integrating all factors and fundus photography, the final combined machine learning model showed good performance to predict myopic regression of more than 0.5 D (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC-AUC], 0.753; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.710-0.793). The performance of the final model was better than the single ResNet50 model only using fundus photography (ROC-AUC, 0.673; 95% CI, 0.627-0.716). The top-five most important input features were fundus photography, preoperative anterior chamber depth, planned ablation thickness, age, and preoperative central corneal thickness.

Conclusion: Our machine learning algorithm provides an efficient strategy to identify high-risk patients with myopic regression without additional labor, cost, and time. Surgeons might benefit from preoperative risk assessment of myopic regression, patient counseling before surgery, and surgical option decisions.