Serum lipase on postoperative day one is a strong predictor of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A retrospective cohort.

Background: Increased postoperative serum amylase has been recently reported to be associated with increased postoperative morbidity, but studies on postoperative serum lipase are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of postoperative serum lipase in predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

Method: A retrospective analysis was performed on 212 patients who underwent PD from September 2018 and March 2021, focusing on the association between postoperative day (POD) 1 serum lipase and CR-POPF.

Results: Overall, 108 (50.9%) patients had elevated serum lipase levels (>68 U/L) on POD 1. Patients with elevated serum lipase exhibited a significantly higher incidence of CR-POPF (37.0% vs. 6.7%, p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses showed improved diagnostic accuracy for POD 1 serum lipase compared with POD 1 serum amylase in predicting CR-POPF (AUC: 0.801 vs. 0.745, p = 0.029). Elevated serum lipase on POD 1 and elevated serum CRP on POD 3 were identified as independent predictors of CR-POPF. A simple early postoperative model, consisting of POD 1 serum lipase levels and POD 3 serum CRP levels, showed good discrimination (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.69-0.83) to identify the onset of CR-POPF.

Conclusion: Serum lipase on POD 1 outperformed serum amylase on POD 1 in predicting CR-POPF after PD. The combination of POD 1 serum lipase and POD 3 serum CRP provides a reliable predicting model for CR-POPF.