Dipping Status, Ambulatory Blood Pressure Control, Cardiovascular Disease, and Kidney Disease Progression: A Multicenter Cohort Study of CKD.

Rationale & Objective: Ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring allows concurrent evaluation of BP control and nocturnal BP dipping status, both related to adverse outcomes. However, few studies have assessed the prognostic role of combining information on dipping status and achieved ambulatory BP in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Study Design: Prospective observational cohort study.

Setting & Participants: 906 patients with hypertension and CKD attending 1 of 3 Italian nephrology clinics.

Exposure: Four groups were defined by simultaneously classifying systolic ambulatory BP levels as being at goal (daytime SBP <135 and nighttime SBP <120 mm Hg) or above goal, and the presence or absence of nocturnal dipping (nighttime to daytime SBP ratio of <0.9 versus ≥0.9).

Outcome: The composite of time to initiation of maintenance dialysis or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline ≥50%, and the composite of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Analytical Approach: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate risks of kidney disease progression and cardiovascular disease in the 4 exposure groups where nocturnal dipping with systolic ambulatory BP at goal was the reference group.

Results: The mean patient age was 63.8 years, 61% were male, and 26.4% had diabetes; eGFR was 41.1 ± 20.8 mL/min/1.73 m. The dipping prevalence in each of the 4 groups was as follows: nocturnal dipping with ambulatory BP at goal, 18.6%; no nocturnal dipping with ambulatory BP at goal, 20.5%; nocturnal dipping with ambulatory BP above goal, 11.8%; and no nocturnal dipping with ambulatory BP above goal, 49.1%. Among patients with ambulatory BP above goal, the risk of cardiovascular events was greater in the absence (HR, 2.79 [95% CI, 1.64-4.75]) and presence (HR, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.10-3.84]) of nocturnal dipping. The same held true for risk of kidney disease progression (HRs of 2.40 [95% CI, 1.58-3.65] and 2.11 [95% CI, 1.28-3.48] in the absence and presence of nocturnal dipping, respectively). Patients at the ambulatory BP goal but who did not experience nocturnal dipping had an increased risk of the cardiovascular end point (HR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.15-3.68]) and the kidney disease progression outcome (HR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.17-2.82]).

Limitations: Lack of a diverse cohort (all those enrolled were White). Residual uncontrolled confounding.

Conclusions: Systolic ambulatory BP above goal or the absence of nocturnal dipping, regardless of ambulatory BP, is associated with higher risks of cardiovascular disease and kidney disease progression among patients with CKD.

Plain-language Summary: Among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring improves the identification of individuals at high risk of clinical disease outcomes. Those with uncontrolled ambulatory BP are known to have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease and kidney disease progression, particularly when their ambulatory BP does not decline by at least 10% at night. Whether this is also true for patients with presence of optimal ambulatory BP levels but a BP pattern of no nighttime decline is largely unknown. We measured ambulatory BP in 900 Italian patients with CKD and followed them for several years. We found that, independent of ambulatory BP level, the absence of nighttime reductions in BP was associated with worsening of CKD and more frequent cardiovascular events. The absence of nighttime declines in BP is an independent risk factor for adverse events among patients with CKD. Future studies are needed to examine whether treating the absence of nighttime declines in BP improves clinical outcomes.