Prognostic factors of muscle injury in elite football players: A media-based, retrospective 5-year analysis.

Objectives: Motor function has been demonstrated to be weakly predictive for the occurrence of muscle injury in team sports. This study examined the value of non-motor prognostic factors in elite football (soccer).

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Analysis of a public data register (Transfermarkt.com).

Participants: 1148 players of 38 German and English first-division football clubs.

Main Outcome Measures: Binary logistic regression examining the association of prognostic factors (age, height, weight, BMI, playing position, market value, history of injury, number of played matches and minutes) and time-loss muscle injuries sustained during five consecutive seasons (2014/2015 to 2018/2019).

Results: A total of 1722 muscle injuries were observed in 619 players. History of general musculoskeletal injury (OR 5.3, 95% CI 3.8-7.5), playing position (OR 2.4-2.5), market value (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.7-3.1), and history of muscle injury (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2) were associated with muscle injury. Sub-analyses revealed location-specific patterns. Playing position was not predictive for adductor injury and, except for one weak association (defender vs. goalkeeper: OR 1.05, 95%CI 0.42-2.62), the same applied to the calf. Contrary to other locations, thigh re-injury was not predicted by previous muscle injury.

Conclusions: Non-motor factors display significant associations with injury risk in elite football players. Conditioning coaches may use this information to improve primary and secondary prevention, while scouting departments may benefit during recruitment.