Forecast of surgical risk in pancreatic cancer.

Over a 22 year period, 305 patients underwent operations for pancreatic cancer. Seventy-one patients who only underwent a laparotomy and 60 patients with defective data were excluded from our study. The remaining 174 patients were analyzed to find a clinically applicable algorithm to allow the preoperative surgical risk to be evaluated in a single patient. One hundred twenty-six had undergone a bypass operation (Group I) and 48, a potentially curative resection (Group II). The two groups were divided into the following three risk groups according to the postoperative course: D, patients who died during the first postoperative month; C, patients with postoperative complications; and U, patients with an uneventful course. Preoperative weight loss, duration of jaundice, serum bilirubin level, total protein level, and age of every patient were collected and transformed into a three-score ordinal scale. Stepwise discriminant analysis of these data enabled us to correctly classify 88 percent of the patients who underwent palliative operations and 83 percent of those who had pancreatic resection. This method is useful in identifying the risk group for a single patient using individual preoperative variables. It may, moreover, suggest the most suitable treatment for each patient with pancreatic cancer.