Breast cancer incidence and predictions (Monastir, Tunisia: 2002-2030): A registry-based study.

Introduction: Breast cancer is a major public health problem worldwide. It is the leading cause of cancer deaths in females. In developing countries like Tunisia, the frequency of this cancer is still growing. The aim of this study was to determine the crude and standardized incidence rates, trends and predictions until 2030 of breast cancer incidence rates in a Tunisian governorate.

Methods: This is a descriptive study including all female patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Monastir between 2002 and 2013. The data were collected from the cancer register of the center. Tumors were coded according to the 10th version of international classification of disease (ICD-10). Trends and predictions until 2030 were calculated using Poisson linear regression.

Results: A total of 1028 cases of female breast cancer were recorded. The median age of patients was 49 years (IQR: 41-59 years) with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 93 years. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was of 39.12 per 100000 inhabitants. It increased significantly between 2002 and 2013 with APC of 8.4% (95% CI: 4.9; 11.9). Prediction until 2030 showed that ASR would reach 108.77 (95% CI: 57.13-209.10) per 100000 inhabitants.

Conclusion: The incidence and the chronological trends of breast cancer highlighted that this disease is of a serious concern in Tunisia. Strengthening preventive measures is a primary step to restrain its burden.