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Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • Global changes driven by human activities are causing biodiversity loss and increasing the risk of disease emergence, especially from bats that harbor various viruses.
  • Researchers developed a method to model bat distributions linked to SARS-like viruses, identifying important factors like temperature seasonality and cave availability while projecting future risk areas.
  • They found that host hotspots, particularly in Myanmar, may shift eastward by 2100 in response to climate change, raising concerns for conservation and public health due to potential local extinctions and increased human-bat interactions.

Article Abstract

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus ), given that several closely related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus-host interactions have gained attention since SARS-CoV-2 emergence. We assessed sampling biases and modelled current distributions of bats based on climate and landscape relationships and project future scenarios for host hotspots. The most important predictors of species distributions were temperature seasonality and cave availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in locations greater than 2°C hotter in a fossil-fuelled development future. Hotspot shifts have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining hotspots may concentrate near human populations.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130791PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.0397DOI Listing

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