Association between serum estradiol level on day of progesterone start and outcomes from frozen blastocyst transfer cycles utilizing oral estradiol.

Purpose: Supraphysiologic serum estradiol levels may negatively impact the likelihood of conception and live birth following IVF. The purpose of this study is to determine if there is an association between serum estradiol level on the day of progesterone start and clinical outcomes following programmed frozen blastocyst transfer cycles utilizing oral estradiol.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study at an academic fertility center analyzing 363 patients who underwent their first autologous single (SET) or double frozen embryo transfer (DET) utilizing oral estradiol and resulting in blastocyst transfer from June 1, 2012, to June 30, 2018. Main outcome measures included implantation, clinical pregnancy, live birth, and miscarriage rates. Cycles were stratified by quartile of serum estradiol on the day of progesterone start and separately analyzed for SET cycles only. Poisson and Log binomial regression were used to calculate relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for implantation, clinical pregnancy, live birth, and miscarriage with adjustments made for age and BMI.

Results: Cycles with the highest quartile of estradiol (mean 528 pg/mL) were associated with lower risks of implantation (RR 0.66, CI 0.50-0.86), ongoing pregnancy (RR 0.66, CI 0.49-0.88), and live birth (RR 0.70, CI 0.52-0.94) compared with those with the lowest estradiol quartile (mean 212 pg/mL). Similar findings were seen for analyses limited to SETs. There was no significant difference in miscarriage rate or endometrial thickness between groups.

Conclusion: High levels of serum estradiol on the day of progesterone start may be detrimental to implantation, pregnancy, and live birth following frozen blastocyst transfer.