Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study.

Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables.

Method: A seasonal model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the ( ).

Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of  = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity ( = 0.070), average local pressure ( = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure ( = 0.188), average wind speed ( = 0.111), air temperature ( ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity ( = -0.203) and sunshine duration ( = -0.075) were all correlated with .

Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.