Prediction model for prolonged hospitalization following cesarean delivery.

Introduction: A rise in the rate of cesarean delivery (CD) has been found to be associated with a higher length of hospital stay, making it a public health concern. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for prolonged hospitalization following CD.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study, in a single tertiary medical center, was conducted (2011-2019). Cesarean deliveries were categorized into three groups according to the postpartum length of stay (a) up to 3 days (the routine post cesarean hospital stay in our center, reference group) (b) 4-9 days, and (c) 10 days or above (prolonged hospitalization). Risk factors were examined using univariate analysis as well as multivariate logistic regression. A specific risk prediction score was developed to predict the need for prolonged hospitalization and ROC curve was assessed utilizing the performance of our model.

Results: Overall, 87,424 deliveries occurred during the study period. Of them, 19,732 (22.5%) were cesarean deliveries. Hospitalization period was distributed as follows: 10,971 (55.6%) women were hospitalized for up to 3 days, 7,576 (38.4%) stayed for 4-9 days and 1,185 (6%) had a prolonged hospitalization period (≥10 days). Using multivariate analysis, multiple pregnancy (OR = 1.29, 95%CI 1.05-1.58), preterm delivery < 37 weeks (OR = 8.32, 95%CI 6.7-10.2), Apgar score < 7 (OR = 1.41, 95%CI 1.11-1.78) and non-elective CD (OR = 1.44, 95%CI 1.15-1.8) were identified as independent risk factors for prolonged hospitalization. Antenatal thrombocytopenia (PLT < 100 K) was found to be a protective factor (OR = 0.51, 95%CI 0.28-0.92). Our score model included antenatal risk factors and was found to be predicting the outcome, with an AUC of 0.845 (95%CI 0.83-0.86, p-value < 0.001).

Conclusion: A prediction score model for prolonged hospitalization after CD may be beneficial for risk assessment and post-partum management.