Assessment of background levels of autoantibodies as a prognostic marker for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Background:: Patients with more severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 exhibit activation of immunological cascades. Participants (current or ex-smokers with at least 20 years pack history) in a trial (Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer, Scotland [ECLS]) of autoantibody detection to predict lung cancer risk had seven autoantibodies measured 5 years before the pandemic. This study compared the response to Covid infection in study participants who tested positive and negative to antibodies to tumour-associated antigens: p53, NY-ESO-1, CAGE, GBU4-5, HuD, MAGE A4 and SOX2.

Methods:: Autoantibody data from the ECLS study was deterministically linked to the EAVE II database, a national, real-time prospective cohort using Scotland’s health data infrastructure, to describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection, patterns of healthcare use and outcomes. The strength of associations was explored using a network algorithm for exact contingency table significance testing by permutation.

Results:: There were no significant differences discerned between SARS-CoV-2 test results and EarlyCDT-Lung test results (p = 0.734). An additional analysis of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions detected no significant differences between those who tested positive and negative. Subgroup analyses showed no difference in COVID-19 positivity or death rates amongst those diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with positive and negative EarlyCDT results.

Conclusions:: This hypothesis-generating study demonstrated no clinically valuable or statistically significant associations between EarlyCDT positivity in 2013-15 and the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in 2020, ICU admission or death in all participants (current or ex-smokers with at least 20 years pack history) or in those with COPD or lung cancer.