Are Lower-Strength Beers Gateways to Higher-Strength Beers? Time Series Analyses of Household Purchases from 64,280 British Households, 2015-2018.

Aims: Buying and consuming no- (per cent alcohol by volume, ABV = 0.0%) and low- (ABV = >0.0% and ≤ 3.5%) alcohol beers could reduce alcohol consumption but only if they replace buying and drinking higher-strength beers. We assess whether buying new no- and low-alcohol beers increases or decreases British household purchases of same-branded higher strength beers.

Methods: Generalized linear models and interrupted time series analyses, using purchase data of 64,280 British households from Kantar Worldpanel's household shopping panel, 2015-2018. We investigate the extent to which the launch of six new no- and low-alcohol beers affected the likelihood and volume of purchases of same-branded higher-strength beers.

Results: Households that had never previously bought a same-branded higher-strength beer but bought a new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer were less than one-third as likely to go on and newly buy the same-branded higher-strength product. When they did later buy the higher-strength product, they bought half as much volume as households that had not bought a new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer. For households that had previously purchased a higher-strength beer, the introduction of the new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer was associated with decreased purchases of the volume of the higher-strength beer by, on average, one-fifth.

Conclusions: The increased availability of new no- and low-alcohol beers does not seem to be a gateway to purchasing same-branded higher-strength beers but rather seems to replace purchases of these higher-strength products. Thus, introduction of new no- and low-alcohol beers could contribute to reducing alcohol consumption.