Establishment and Validation of a Non-invasive Diagnostic Nomogram to Identify Heart Failure in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is an end-stage manifestation of and cause of death in coronary heart disease (CHD). The objective of this study was to establish and validate a non-invasive diagnostic nomogram to identify HF in patients with CHD.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 44,772 CHD patients from five tertiary hospitals. Univariate logistic regression analyses and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were used to identify independent factors. A nomogram based on the multivariate logistic regression model was constructed using these independent factors. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves (CIC) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and clinical value of this nomogram.

Results: The predictive factors in the multivariate model included hypertension, age, and the total bilirubin, uric acid, urea nitrogen, triglyceride, and total cholesterol levels. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the nomogram in the training set, internal validation set, external validation set1, and external validation set2 were 0.720 (95% CI: 0.712-0.727), 0.723 (95% CI: 0.712-0.735), 0.692 (95% CI: 0.674-0.710), and 0.655 (95% CI: 0.634-0.677), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the nomogram had strong calibration. DCA and CIC indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice.

Conclusion: The developed predictive model combines the clinical and laboratory factors of patients with CHD and is useful in individualized prediction of HF probability for clinical decision-making during treatment and management.