A Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Children With Wilms Tumor: A Study Based on SEER Database and External Validation in China.

Background: Wilms tumor (WT) is the most common tumor in children. We aim to construct a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of WT in children and externally validate in China.

Methods: We downloaded the clinicopathological data of children with WT from 2004 to 2018 in the SEER database. At the same time, we used the clinicopathological data collected previously for all children with WT between 2013 and 2018 at Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (Chongqing, China). We analyzed the difference in survival between the patients in the SEER database and our hospital. Cox regression analysis was used to screen for significant risk factors. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict the CSS of children with WT. Calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model.

Results: We included 1,045 children with WT in the SEER database. At the same time, we collected 112 children with WT in our hospital. The Kaplan-Meier curve suggested that children in China with WT had a higher mortality rate than those in the United States. Cox regression analysis revealed that age, lymph node density (LND), and tumor stage were significant prognostic factors for the patients in the SEER database. However, the patients in our hospital only confirmed that the tumor stage and the number of positive regional lymph nodes were significant factors. The prediction model established by the SEER database had been validated internally and externally to prove that it had good accuracy and reliability.

Conclusion: We have constructed a survival prognosis prediction model for children with WT, which has been validated internally and externally to prove accuracy and reliability.