Changing transmission dynamics among migrant, indigenous and mining populations in a malaria hotspot in Northern Brazil: 2016 to 2020.

Background: Roraima state is the northernmost state in Brazil and the primary border-crossing point between Brazil and Venezuela. The uncontrolled surge of malaria in Venezuela, coupled with mass migration of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries and the upward trend in informal mining in the state, pose a serious threat to the broader region, especially to migrant, indigenous and mining populations, jeopardizing malaria elimination efforts. This study describes changes in the epidemiological profile of malaria in Roraima state related to time, place and populations at risk from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: De-identified malaria surveillance data were obtained from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System from 2016 to 2020. Pearson's chi-square tested differences between imported and autochthonous cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for imported versus autochthonous cases by demographic characteristics.

Results: Odds of being an imported case were higher for Plasmodium falciparum cases (AOR = 2.08). However, as the number of cases from Venezuela decreased in 2020 following closure of the border, the proportion of P. falciparum cases increased markedly, from 6.24% in 2019 to 18.50% in 2020. Over the 5-year period, the odds of being an imported case among miners were about nine times higher than the general population (AOR = 8.99). The proportion of total malaria cases that were among indigenous people increased from 33.09% in 2016 to 54.83% in 2020. Indigenous children had a higher burden of malaria with over 40% of cases in children 0 to 9 years old, compared to 8% in non-indigenous children 0 to 9 years old. In some municipalities, place of infection differed from place of notification, with a large proportion of cases in these municipalities reporting in Boa Vista.

Conclusions: Malaria remains a serious threat in Roraima state, especially among high-risk populations, such as miners, migrants, and indigenous people. As malaria cases have increased among indigenous people and miners, and the proportion of P. falciparum cases has increased, elimination efforts require understanding of these risk factors to tailor interventions appropriately. Furthermore, cross-border surveillance systems need to be urgently strengthened at formal and unofficial border points, especially since the border with Venezuela reopened in July 2021.