Impact of PNPLA3 p.I148M and Hepatic Steatosis on Long-Term Outcomes for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and HBsAg Seroclearance in Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background: Coexistence of hepatitis B and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is common; however, little is known about the impact of hepatic steatosis and its major genetic determinants on the natural history of HBV infection. We aimed to study the effects of hepatic steatosis and PNPLA3 variant p.I148M on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the lifetime probability of HBsAg seroclearance, which is associated with functional remission and improved long-term outcome of HBV infection.

Methods: We conducted a cohort study of 2385 male, HBsAg-positive Taiwanese civil servants recruited in 1989-1992, and followed up until 2019. Cox regression with competing-risk models was used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (sHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: Of 2385 participants, 628 experienced HBsAg seroclearance and 217 developed HCC. Hepatic steatosis, excess body-mass index, and the PNPLA3-148M variant were significantly associated with higher HBsAg seroclearance rate. However, multivariate analyses accounting for HBsAg seroclearance and various HCC risk factors showed that, while steatosis was associated with decreased HCC risk (sHR [95% CI]: 0.49 [0.36-0.66]), carriage of the PNPLA3-148M variant allele (vs II homozygotes: 1.64 [1.20-2.25] for MI heterozygotes; 1.83 [1.20-2.78] for MM homozygotes) and obesity (1.51 [1.07-2.13]) were associated with increased risk. The inverse hepatic steatosis-HCC association persisted after additional adjustment for other viral factors or using different follow-up time cut-offs to account for reverse causality. Moreover, the PNPLA3 MM genotype was positively associated with elevations of ALT and AST and liver cirrhosis, while hepatic steatosis was positively associated with ALT but inversely associated with AST and liver cirrhosis.

Conclusion: Hepatic steatosis and PNPLA3-148M variant appeared to have distinct impacts on the development of HBV-related progressive liver disease and HCC. PNPLA3 p.I148M, but not a diagnosis of hepatic steatosis, can help to identify HBV carriers with high-risk fatty liver disease in the progression to HCC.