End-stage renal disease: incidence and prediction by coronary heart disease, and educational level. Follow-up from diagnosis of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes throughout Norway 1973-2017.

Purpose: To investigate incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and the association of education and coronary heart disease (CHD) with ESRD, in subjects throughout Norway followed from the diagnosis of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

Methods: All new onset cases of type 1 diabetes 1973-2016 were followed for CHD and ESRD in nation-wide registries through 2017. Ten matched controls per case were selected from the National Population Register. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios, and probabilities were estimated by the cumulative incidence function accounting for competing risk.

Results: Among 9311 patients with type 1 diabetes, 130 developed ESRD with a probability of ESRD after 40 years of 5.5%. The rate was 35-fold higher than in controls (aHR = 35.5, 95% CI 23.1 - 54.6). Higher education was associated with lower risk of ESRD compared to low education (aHR = 0.14, 95% CI 0.07 - 0.27). Diagnosed CHD was associated with 14-fold increased rate of ESRD (aHR = 14.3, 95% CI 9.2 - 22.2).

Conclusions: The hazard rate of ESRD was 35-fold higher in cases compared to controls. CHD was associated with a 14-fold increased rate of subsequent ESRD, while higher education was associated with substantially lower rate of ESRD.